Description

• Title:
  Future Life-Tables Based on the Lee-Carter Methodology and their Application to Calculating the Pension Annuities
• Creator:
  Rossa, Agnieszka
• Contributor:
  Uniwersytet Łódzki; Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny; Instytut Statystyki i Demografii
• Description:
  In the paper a new recursive approach to the mortality forecasting is proposed based on the well-known Lee-Carter stochastic model. The standard Lee- -Carter method and its modified version are presented and compared using mortality data for Poland in the time period 1990-2007. The results obtained indicate that the recursive approach gives more accurate forecasts in terms of the mean squared error. Stochastic forecasts of age-specific death rates are also used to predict death prob- abilities and life expectancy being the main parameters of the life-tables. As an example, future life-tables for 2020 are calculated. Applications of Lee-Carter methodology in pension annuity calculations are presented.
• Object availability:
  free access
• Date:
  2012.05.28;
  2011
• Type:
  Article
• Format:
  application/pdf
• Publisher:
  Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Relation:
  Acta Universitatis Lodziensis, Folia Oeconomica;
• Subject:
  mortality forecasting;
  Lee-Carter model;
  future life-tables;
  pension annuity
• Identifier:
  0208-6018;
  http://hdl.handle.net/11089/605
• Data provider:
  Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Can I use it?:
  seek permission
• Type:
  image